Nigeria produced about 502.26 million barrels of crude oil and condensate between January and October 2026, but the output is still below the benchmark set in the 2026 budget.
The figure, which translated to a daily average of 1.65 million barrels per day (mbpd), was calculated from monthly production data of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Data from the NUPRC, released on Wednesday, showed that the country produced a daily average of 1.687 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in October 2026, thus meeting its OPEC quota for the sixth consecutive month.
The report showed that in strict crude oil terms (excluding condensate), the country produced an average of 1.51 mbpd in October.
The country also met its OPEC crude oil quota of 1.5 mbpd in October, making it the sixth straight month it has done so.
However, the 2026 budget is based on an oil production benchmark of 1.84 mbpd.
At that level, Nigeria would have produced about 559 million barrels in the 304 days covered by the period. This puts the shortfall at about 57 million barrels.
No month in the period reached the benchmark. The closest was June, when the daily average stood at 1.74 mbpd, still about 100,000 barrels per day short of the budget target.
The 502.26 million barrels produced in the 10 months is about 90.6 per cent of the 554.4 million barrels Nigeria produced in the whole of 2025.
On a month-by-month basis, the data showed that output improved as the year progressed.
An analysis of production showed that the first four months of the year recorded a total of 189.83 million barrels, representing a daily average of 1.58 mbpd. From May to October, it rose to 312.43 million barrels, averaging 1.70 mbpd.
This means output in the second half of the period was about 118,000 barrels per day higher than in the first four months.
January production stood at 50.45 million barrels, or 1.63 mbpd. February was the weakest month, with 41.55 million barrels produced, or 1.48 mbpd. March recovered to 47.93 million barrels, or 1.55 mbpd, while April closed the first four months with 49.90 million barrels, or 1.66 mbpd.
Production then stayed above 51 million barrels in every month from May. May recorded 52.72 million barrels, or 1.70 mbpd, while June, the strongest month of the year so far, recorded 52.06 million barrels, or 1.74 mbpd. July output was 51.80 million barrels, or 1.67 mbpd, and August was 52.01 million barrels, or 1.68 mbpd. September recorded 51.51 million barrels, or 1.72 mbpd.
October Output
In October, Nigeria produced a daily average of 1.69 mbpd of crude oil and condensate, which was 1.7 per cent lower than the 1.72 mbpd recorded in September.
This translated to about 52.32 million barrels for the month.
NUPRC said crude oil alone (excluding condensate) averaged 1.51 mbpd in the month, while condensate accounted for about 0.17 mbpd. It added that the crude oil figure represents 101 per cent of the 1.5 mbpd quota set for Nigeria by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The commission also said daily production peaked at 1.79 million barrels in October, while the lowest for the month was 1.60 million barrels.
The country missed its OPEC quota in the first four months of the year. Crude oil output, excluding condensate, averaged 1.46 mbpd in January, 1.31 mbpd in February, 1.38 mbpd in March and 1.49 mbpd in April.
Since May, however, production has stayed at or above the 1.5 mbpd quota every month. October was the sixth consecutive month of compliance.
NUPRC attributed the stable performance in recent months to better operational stability. It said improved production uptime and crude evacuation efficiency also played a role.
The commission added that operators and other industry stakeholders have continued to work on improving efficiency, protecting the integrity of assets and making production more reliable across the upstream sector.
NUPRC’s breakdown of October production shows that Forcados Terminal was the highest producer, with a daily average of 318.49 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) of crude oil and condensate. Bonny came second with 311.02 kbpd.
Together, the two terminals accounted for about 629,500 barrels per day.
Qua Iboe Terminal followed with 173.97 kbpd, while Escravos Oil Terminal recorded 134.67 kbpd. Bonga ranked fifth with 106.65 kbpd.
The five terminals together produced about 1.04 mbpd, which is roughly 62 per cent of the country’s total daily output of crude oil and condensate in the month.