The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is looking to 2027 for a recovery in oil demand, even as it cuts this year’s growth forecast by more than 70 per cent.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC said global demand will grow by 400,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from 600,000 barrels per day in August. It is the fifth straight monthly cut.
Since April, when it expected growth of nearly 1.4 million barrels per day, OPEC has taken about one million barrels per day off the forecast. That is where the 70 per cent figure comes from. (capitalfm) (okaz)
While the 2026 number has fallen month after month, the 2027 number has risen. OPEC now expects demand to grow by about 2.4 million barrels per day next year, up from 2.2 million barrels per day in its previous report. The July report had it at 1.9 million barrels per day, so the 2027 forecast has gone up by about half a million barrels per day in two months.
OPEC expects demand in OECD countries, mostly richer economies, to rise by about 400,000 barrels per day in 2027, while demand from non-member countries grows by about two million. This year the picture is weaker. OPEC expects OECD demand to fall by about 110,000 barrels per day, while the other economies grow by about 490,000. (okaz) (okaz)
OPEC says the conflict in the Middle East continues to reshape how energy is used. The 2027 upgrade suggests the group sees this as a temporary drag.
OPEC left its forecast for oil supply growth from producers outside the OPEC+ alliance unchanged at 640,000 barrels per day for 2026 and 620,000 for 2027. With demand expected to grow faster than that supply in 2027, the market could lean more heavily on OPEC+ producers. [Add analyst comment on the 2027 outlook and what it means for price.] (okaz)