Nigeria’s plan to return to investment-grade status by 2029 looks too ambitious, according to S&P Global Ratings, which says the distance to be covered is likely to take longer than three years, Nairametrics reports.
Samira Mensah, S&P’s Managing Director for Research and Analytics in Africa, gave the assessment in an interview in Lagos. She was responding to the federal government’s stated aim of moving out of speculative-grade territory by 2029.
According to Nairametrics, Mensah said that in S&P’s long history of rating sovereigns, no country has moved from a single-B rating to investment grade in three years.
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele announced the 2029 target last month. The government says a return to investment grade would draw in more capital, build investor confidence and deepen the country’s financial markets.
S&P currently rates Nigeria B with a stable outlook, five notches below investment grade. Fitch Ratings is also five notches below the threshold, while Moody’s is six.
Reforms acknowledged
Nairametrics reports that Mensah, despite her doubts about the timeline, recognised the government’s efforts to strengthen the economy and public finances.
S&P raised Nigeria’s rating in May, the first upgrade since 2012. The agency cited continuing reforms, higher oil prices and improved capacity to refine and export crude oil. The upgrade followed policy changes introduced by President
Bola Tinubu since he took office in May 2023. These include the removal of expensive petrol subsidies, the freeing of the foreign exchange market so the naira can trade more openly, and tax changes meant to raise government revenue.
The reforms are designed to make public finances more sustainable, reduce economic distortions and improve Nigeria’s ability to meet its debt obligations.
Direction matters more than the target
Mensah said S&P welcomes the government’s decision to set an ambitious goal. She advised, however, that policymakers should concentrate on sustained economic improvement rather than fixing on a particular rating by a particular date. In her view, steady progress in the right direction counts for more than hitting a specific grade.
Investment-grade status signals a lower risk of default and opens a country to a wider group of international investors, which can lower borrowing costs for governments and businesses. For Nigeria, it would mark a major turnaround after years of fiscal pressure, foreign exchange problems and high debt risk.
MSCI classification also on the agenda
Speaking at the National Capital Market Conference 2026 in Abuja last month, Oyedele said Nigeria wants to be placed in MSCI’s Emerging Markets classification rather than settle for a return to Frontier Market status. He said the government is in talks with MSCI, and that a new capital market roadmap aims to grow the market from about N250 trillion to N750 trillion by 2036.
The minister described a return to international investment benchmarks as a stepping stone, not the end goal. Index providers shape where institutional investors place their money, he said, because those investors use the benchmarks to allocate capital across markets.